Wednesday October eighth Finest MLB Playoff Betting Picks & Predictions

It is a packed day of MLB playoff motion! Right here’s a pair props I like right this moment.

Season File: 20-19-2, -.06 Models

Phillies at Dodgers

Aaron Nola Over 2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-146 DraftKings)

The betting markets actually assume that we see little or no of Aaron Nola tonight. His Outs Recorded prop is at 8.5, although tilted to the over at -141. His Hits Allowed prop facilities round 3, juiced to -148 Over. I get it. The Phillies path 2-0 within the sequence and clearly need to win this one. They’ve Ranger Suarez to go in a piggyback function if Nola has the slightest of struggles. And maybe most significantly, Nola has not pitched properly this yr, with a 6.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His ERA estimators paint a rosier image as he had a 4.25 xERA and three.81 SIERA.

Nola missed about half the season with accidents, however his strikeout numbers have remained fairly constant all through. He has a 24% Okay% and 11.2% SwStr% on the yr, nearly an identical to what he did in 2024 when he made each begin and had a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. What’s simply gone is any sort of consistency. In two of his final 4 common season begins, he yielded only one earned run in 14 mixed innings, with 16 Okay’s. Within the different two he gave up 10 earned runs in 11.1 IP and struck out 9.

I do know it is a leap of faith here that we get Ace Nola, and even Serviceable Nola. However it’s a extremely low Okay prop, so undecided we even want his greatest model. We will win this if he merely will get by means of 2 innings.

Brewers at Cubs

Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-141 DraftKings)

Nicely I assume I’ve a theme right this moment. The market once more assumes the starter on a workforce with their complete season on the road will get yanked on the slightest signal of hassle. And once more, that’s a secure assumption. I’m simply prepared to guess that the pitcher, on this case Taillon, can hold in lengthy sufficient to surpass a meager Okay prop.

Taillon and Nola will not be related, save for his or her age and the plight of their groups. Taillon profiles as a strong mid rotation starter however he’s offered rather more than that for the Cubs, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 51 begins and 295 innings over the past 2 seasons. 

He simply doesn’t get many whiffs as he has an 8.8% SwStr% and 18.7% Okay%. This can be a wager extra on his total high quality as he could must get by means of the 4th inning to get to three strikeouts right here. I say he does it. He pitched within the deciding Game 3 vs. the Padres last Thursday, and lasted 4 innings. He confronted 14 batters and struck out 4 of them, whereas giving up simply 2 hits and no walks or runs. He’s the Cubs greatest starter proper now. I’ll roll along with his Okay prop right here.